News Anlaysis: Presidential Nomination Contest

Obama Rebounds Before the Buzzer Sounds for Indiana and North Carolina Primaries

(Sunday, May 4, 2008)
His favorite sport is  basketball and if this were a game the statistician might record an offensive rebound for Barack Obama. Whether he can take it to the hoop before the buzzer sounds on Tuesday remains to be seen.

The rebound is in the form of a poll taken May 1 to May 3 by  CBS News/The New York Times. It is the most recent poll as of this writing. According to a report from Reuters News Service the Illinois Senator now leads Hillary Clinton by 12 percentage points nationally, 50 percent to 38 percent. The same pollsters showed Obama ahead nationally by 8 percent just a few days ago, in the midst of recent attacks from his former pastor.

What is singular about the increase in poll numbers is that it is actually an increase. Many pundits had predicted that the Rev. Wright controversy, which filled the content of cable television news for more than a week, might end his lead in the Democratic Presidential Primaries.

Most analysts agree that Obama and Clinton will probably split the remaining delegates to be awarded for the Democratic presidential nomination.

There are about 679 delegates left to be awarded to either candidate. Most of these are from remaining primaries but about 275 will come from undeclared super delegates.

If Obama and Clinton each get 50% of the remaining 679 delegates, Obama will get about 339 more delegates before the convention, as will Clinton.

Obama currently has 1,742 delegates (according to Real Clear Politics)

If Obama gets half of the remaining delegates his total before the convention will be the sum of 339 (one-half of the remaining delegates) + 1,742 (delegates awarded to him so far)   = 2,081 delegates.

This is 56 more delegates than he needs to get the nomination. Only if the rules are broken could the candidate be denied the nomination.

The last reported poll for the North Carolina Presidential Primary shows Obama at 48% and Clinton at 39%. See Real Clear Politics for new polls in North Carolina. The same website shows Obama ahead by 2 points in Indiana in the most recently reported poll as of May 4, 2008.

In Warren County, once considered a bastion of conservatism, a local campaign won 33% of the vote for Obama. The 2,040 votes for Obama in the county contributed to delegate selection for the 3rd and 5th Congressional District (see related story).

The Warren County for Obama organization set up headquarters at 117 Market Street in a 170-year-old structure called The Tybout House. Campaign organizers had hoped to publicize the cultural value of the house which may or may not be torn down for a parking lot.

Photo of Barack Obama in Pittsburgh on April 21, 2008 by Chris Lareau

Photo of Warren County for Obama Headquarters by Chris Lareau

photos are copyright 2008 by Allegheny Almanac

RELATED LINK: Photo essay on Warren County for Obama